Actor in a Lead Role
Where is Paul Dano?!? This one seemed obvious to me. Bet it was to Paul, too. Sorry, brother.
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Colin Farrell, Pádraic Súilleabháin in The Banshees of Inishirin
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Lost that it was Will Smith -- that alone gets some points! Even though this was a family Father's Day gift to Richard Williams, Will gets the Venus Rosewater Dish (the award for winning Wimbledon, you non-erudite toadies! Ok, yeah, I had to look that up).
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Austin Butler, Elvis Presley in Elvis
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I do commend performers who can pull of such a well-known figure. Butler does not lampoon Elvis as we have come to expect, but portrays a naive but skilled performer who is taken advantage of, like so many performers. He will wil, but he should not, because...
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Brendan Fraser, Charlie in The Whale
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This is by far my favorite performance. It is not the fat suit, or the labor Brendan Fraser had to undergo to accurately portray a 600 lb man. He is able to project an innocent, unbreakable positivity about the world (and his hopes for his family), while revealing an inner pain few of us can fathom. He's earned it. I hope Charlie helps bring Brendan some hardware.
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Bill Nighy, Williams in Living
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Full transparency time: I respect Bill Nighy's acting. I enjoyed him in The Girl in the Cafe and Valkyrie. But I love Bill Nighy because we watch Love Actually as one of our go-to holiday movies every year. This will never change, and it will never justify me arguing for him to win an Oscar against Colin Farrell, Austin Brendan Fraser or The King.
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Paul Mescal, Calum in Aftersun
For Profit...
You get a whole panel of normal white guys, yet there's this 3rd British Invasion thing going on. Special relationship?!? I think not -- this is why we had the Second in the First place.
For Real...
Can I get a pizza, please? Really...I was promised pie. I want the pizza variety...of pie.