Actor in a Lead Role
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Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
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This was an incredible performance in a tough movie. Highly recommend one watching (suspect, like me, you'll eschew a second viewing) as it really does give us a listening, if you will, of what the hearing impaired experience. Definitely worthy. Definitely won't win. Because:
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Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
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Let's be clear: he will win. He would've won even if he was still alive. This was the best performance of his career and unique compared to his other work.
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Anthony Hopkins, The Father
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His Nixon performance was robbed in '96 thanks to our Oscar-love for drugs/alcohol/death. He was brilliant here, both sympathetic and difficult, properly capturing what so many go through with dementia. Wouldn't be sad if he won, but he won't.
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Gary Oldman, Mank
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This guy plays so many different roles do differently, I'm not sure I know he's in the movie unless I've read it in advance. And I'm not just saying that because he's a guy who's stuck in a bed drinking and I'm jealous.
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Steven Yeun, Minari
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Back-from-the-dead-Glenn proves he's a real actor, not just a good looking prop in a zombie TV show. This was a great movie that needs more people to watch it!
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Democratic Response
40% White guys? That's a start. Literally, anyone else.

Republican Response

You happy? You got a black guy, an oriental (oh, sorry....forgot) an Oriental, whatever the hell the deaf guy is and a couple of repressed white guys. Guess which two are not going to win? You heard it here first.
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